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Trump approval rating on October 9?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$250.8
Total volume$250.8
Liquidity$1.6K
Event end date · UTCOct 10, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<36.0Accepting ordersMarket odds11.5%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.0 on October 9, 2026?
Yes11.5%Polymarket estimate
No88.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $229.2
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 10, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 4.0¢ / 19.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on October 9, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.