Trump approval >40% on July 1?

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Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$800.5K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJul 1, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Trump approval >40% on July 1?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jul 1, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is above 40% on July 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than 40% for a “Yes” resolution; an approval of 40% rating will not qualify. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for July 1 is not published by July 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), the next previous datapoint will be used to resolve this market.