
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Joseph Biden wins the Democratic nomination for president of the United States and Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination for president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", both named candidates must win the described nominations. If one wins and the other does not, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Democratic and Republican national conventions, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 6:09:06 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.