
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any U.S. federal court formally holds President Donald J. Trump, or any official, agency, employee, or representative of the Trump administration, in contempt of court in connection with the September 2026 revocation of White House press access for CNN, MS NOW, and/or Politico or a related court order, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Civil or criminal contempt will qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: the filing of a motion for contempt; an order to show cause why a party should not be held in contempt; a finding of probable cause that criminal contempt has occurred; a judge's verbal warning or admonishment; or sanctions, fees, or other relief imposed without a contempt finding. A qualifying contempt finding that is subsequently stayed, vacated, or reversed will still resolve this market to "Yes", provided the finding was issued on or before October 31, 2026. The resolution source will be official federal court records, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 10:35:03 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.