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Trump >50% chance of winning nomination after Super Tuesday?
24h volume$0
Total volume$163.8
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCMar 6, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Closed100%
Trump >50% chance of winning nomination after Super Tuesday?
Yes100%
No0%
- Liquidity
- $38.8
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 6, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Resolution rules
This is a market on whether Trump has >50% chance of winning the Republican nomination after Super Tuesday (March 5), according to the market https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-j-trump-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination-1. If the average price of Trump Yes shares is above 50¢ on March 6, 2024, ET, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." To calculate the average price, the "Yes" midpoint price (halfway point between the best bid and best ask) will be captured exactly once at a random time in every 10 minute interval. This will be repeated for every 10 minute interval starting on March 6, 2024, 12:00 AM ET. The average of all of the recorded prices will then be calculated - this will be defined as the average price of “Yes” shares on March 6, 2024, ET. The recorded prices will be viewable here, once the date is March 6, 2024 and samples have been taken: [to be edited in with data link]. The average price will also be memorialized on the Polymarket description once all samples have been taken.