Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$124.8K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Apr 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On February 20, multiple buses exploded in Tel Aviv (see: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/terror-suspected-after-2-buses-explode-in-parking-lots-in-tel-aviv-suburb-nobody-hurt/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the bombing by February 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals arrested in direct connection to the attack will qualify. Arrests of suspected accomplices who did not directly participate in the planting of these explosives will not count. Actions such as questioning or detention without a formal arrest will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If an arrest is made, this market may remain open beyond the end date in order to confirm whether the arrested individual qualifies according to the rules. The primary resolution source will be official information from law enforcement agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.