Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$66K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCOct 31, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 31, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.2¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic military strike is carried out on the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open open spaces on around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.