SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?

Yes10.5%

No89.5%

Liquidity: $452.8
Deadline · UTC: Nov 1, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 10.0¢ / 11.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Resolution rules

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?

Yes89.5%

No10.5%

Liquidity: $1.2K
Deadline · UTC: Dec 1, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 88.0¢ / 91.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Resolution rules

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.

Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?

Yes50%

No50%

Liquidity: $103.5
Deadline · UTC: Jul 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 23.0¢ / 77.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

Price history

Outcomes & resolution rules

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?

Resolution rules

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?

Resolution rules

Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?

Resolution rules

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?

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Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

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Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?

Resolution rules

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?

Resolution rules