
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's closing share price on its second day of trading is greater than or equal to the opening share price on that day. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.” The second day of trading for the purposes of this market will be the second calendar day on which SpaceX records both an official opening and closing price on the primary exchange. The official opening price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the opening share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s second day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 9:42:12 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.