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SpaceX 4th Starship launch survives re-entry?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$4K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
SpaceX 4th Starship launch survives re-entry?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fourth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight re-enters the Earth's atmosphere without experiencing a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market pertains to the fourth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the fourth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the fourth launch, and this market will stay open until the fourth launch has occurred. If the fourth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." If it is unclear and/or cannot be determined whether the Starship experienced RUD before or after re-entry, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX or Elon Musk however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.