
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 hits an all time high price during market hours after a winner is called in the 2024 US Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the election is called during market hours, this market will resolve based on the S&P 500 highest price during the remainder of that day's market hours. If the election is called after market hours, this market will resolve based on figures between market open and market close on the first trading day after the election is called. The winner will be considered "called" once the Associated Press declares a winner in this election. The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC).
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 10:31:36 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.