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September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$4.2K
Liquidity$1.1K
Event end date · UTCNov 2, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<1.30ºCAccepting ordersMarket odds2.4%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?
Yes2.4%Polymarket estimate
No97.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $201
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 2, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.7¢ / 4.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.