Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$1.5M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCApr 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Apr 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, specifically covering sea or air operations between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A general ceasefire agreement which covers all theaters of war will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the ceasefire goes into effect. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine specifically addressing sea or air operations has been reached will suffice