
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is released from custody by February 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Prince Andrew is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Prince Andrew is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Prince Andrew to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Prince Andrew to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is released from custody by February 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Prince Andrew is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Prince Andrew is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Prince Andrew to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Prince Andrew to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is released from custody by February 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Prince Andrew is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Prince Andrew is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Prince Andrew to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Prince Andrew to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is released from custody by February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Prince Andrew is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Prince Andrew is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Prince Andrew to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Prince Andrew to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 4:01:17 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.