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Poland Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.7M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMay 18, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Rafał TrzaskowskiClosedMarket odds100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- May 18, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Poland has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Polish presidential election are not known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Polish government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).