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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volume$391.5
Total volume$1.2K
Liquidity$12.3K
Event end date · UTCDec 1, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting ordersMarket odds8.5%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Yes8.5%Polymarket estimate
No91.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $12.3K
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 8.0¢ / 9.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.