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Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$88.8K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCMar 10, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
American FictionClosedMarket odds100%
Will American Fiction win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 8, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2024 the 96th Academy Awards are set to be given out in a ceremony scheduled for March 10. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'American Fiction' wins the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated screenplay whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.