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OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$3K
Liquidity$550.9
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2028
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Polymarket · UTC
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Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?Accepting ordersMarket odds81%
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?
OpenAI81%Polymarket estimate
Anthropic19%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $525.3
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2028
- OpenAI bid / ask
- 78.0¢ / 84.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
AI research not covered
Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so. If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution. The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the company, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the company's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.