OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

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24h volume$14.6

Total volume$865

Liquidity$150.2

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?Accepting ordersMarket odds41.5%

OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

Yes41.5%Polymarket estimate

No58.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $148.1
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 12.0¢ / 71.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges, files a criminal complaint, or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of OpenAI Foundation, OpenAI Group PBC or any parent, subsidiary, or successor of either entity, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. A qualifying charge need not result in a conviction. This market will resolve to "Yes" even if the charge is later dismissed, reduced, or resolved through a deferred prosecution agreement, so long as it was filed or announced by the date specified above. Charges solely against individuals will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.