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How many Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$108.7K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<50 ClosedMarket odds0%
Less than 50 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth receives less than 50 YEA votes, in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.