Loading your workspace…
All markets
Quebec General Election: PCQ # Seats?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$197.4
Total volume$8.5K
Liquidity$58.6K
Event end date · UTCOct 6, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<5Accepting ordersMarket odds2%
Will the PCQ win fewer than 5 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
Yes2%Polymarket estimate
No98.1%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $16.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 6, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.5¢ / 2.4¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Get the Foretrace AI forecast
See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.
Fresh successful report: 1 credit. Valid shared report: free.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).