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# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.8M
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCJul 3, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<25kClosedMarket odds0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jul 3, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by less than 25,000 between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.