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Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$156.5K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCFeb 13, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds0%
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 13, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any one-hour period between market creation and February 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-us-strikes-iran-in-february-over-50-by-feb-13 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a one-hour window. This will display a one-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.