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Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$120.6K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCFeb 28, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 28, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period ending between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-40 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.