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October Unemployment Rate
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 9 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$735.2
Total volume$1.8K
Liquidity$7.4K
Event end date · UTCNov 6, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
≤3.8%Accepting ordersMarket odds4.5%
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?
Yes4.5%Polymarket estimate
No95.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 6, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.0¢ / 8.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.