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NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 7 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$99.5
Total volume$22.2K
Liquidity$22.2K
Event end date · UTCNov 8, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<25Accepting ordersMarket odds9.3%
Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Yes9.3%Polymarket estimate
No90.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 8, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.3¢ / 17.3¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).