
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Farcaster users (by # unique casters) is less than 15,000 on Feb 5, after numbers for that day are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is https://dune.com/pixelhack/farcaster, specifically the DAU graph by unique cast fid. If this source is down at the resolution time, another reliable source will be used.
Resolution sourceThis market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Farcaster users (by # unique casters) is between 15,000 (inclusive) and 20,000 (exclusive) on Feb 5, after numbers for that day are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is https://dune.com/pixelhack/farcaster, specifically the DAU graph by unique cast fid. If this source is down at the resolution time, another reliable source will be used.
Resolution sourceThis market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Farcaster users (by # unique casters) is between 20,000 (inclusive) and 25,000 (inclusive) on Feb 5, after numbers for that day are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is https://dune.com/pixelhack/farcaster, specifically the DAU graph by unique cast fid. If this source is down at the resolution time, another reliable source will be used.
Resolution sourceThis market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of Farcaster users (by # unique casters) is over 25,000 on Feb 5, after numbers for that day are finalized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is https://dune.com/pixelhack/farcaster, specifically the DAU graph by unique cast fid. If this source is down at the resolution time, another reliable source will be used.
Resolution sourceRetrieved 10/3/2026, 7:12:07 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.