
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US strikes Iran - Israel strikes Iran - Gov Shutdown for 10+ days - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - André Ventura wins Portugal Presidential Election - LDP does not win most seats in Japan General Election - Gold (GC) hits ↑ $8,000 - Bitcoin hits ↓ 60,000 - Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran - Insurrection Act invoked Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Feb.pdf
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 11:12:32 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.