
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - United States wins most Medals at 2026 Winter Olympics - Starmer out - Insurrection Act invoked - March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" - US strikes Iran - Israel strikes Iran - Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran - US-Iran nuclear deal - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Bitcoin hits ↓ 40,000 Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_February.pdf
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 6:25:50 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.