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Next UK by-election called by…?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
View a sample AI report This event is outside current AI coverage.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$338.1
Liquidity$360.4
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
October 31Accepting ordersMarket odds18%
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by October 31?
Yes18%Polymarket estimate
No82%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $257.1
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 12.0¢ / 24.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
AI research not covered
This market has limited available liquidity.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.