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Next Government of Australia
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$3.4M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMay 3, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Labor majorityClosedMarket odds100%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- May 3, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve to the first governing party that forms the Australian Government after the next federal election and is able to command confidence in the House of Representatives. The government will be considered formed once the Prime Minister is formally appointed by the Governor-General under non-caretaker circumstances and ministers are sworn in. If no government is formed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if a new federal election is officially called before that date without a government having been formed under the criteria above, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Australian government. Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.