Loading your workspace…
All markets
Next Chancellor of Germany?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$40.9M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
16 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Friedrich Merz (CDU)ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 23, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Friedrich Merz is the next Chancellor of Germany following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any interim/caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Chancellor of Germany is announced by June 30, of 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.