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New Zealand Election: Turnout
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$15.2
Total volume$20.7K
Liquidity$95.5K
Event end date · UTCNov 8, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<76%Accepting ordersMarket odds4.3%
Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Yes4.3%Polymarket estimate
No95.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $20.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 8, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 2.7¢ / 5.9¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.