New French government formed in July?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$17K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJul 31, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

New French government formed in July?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jul 31, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.1¢ / 0.2¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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This market is closed or awaiting resolution.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new French government is formed by July 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET. A new government is defined as the appointment of a Prime Minister and a cabinet that secures enough votes in the National Assembly to pass legislation. The market will remain open until 10 parliamentary session days have passed after the Prime Minister has been appointed. If the Prime Minister is able to pass legislation or secure a confidence vote this market will immediately resolve to “Yes”. If a no-confidence vote is passed within this period, the market will resolve to "No”. If a no-confidence vote has not passed after the completion of the 10 days, this market will resolve to “Yes” even if no new legislation has been passed. If a new government forms under the current caretaker Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, this will count as a new government. However the status quo of his current caretaker position will not count as a new government. If a prime minister is appointed before July 31, this market may stay open until 10 parliamentary session days have passed or the other resolution criteria has been met. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.