New EU country recognizes Palestine before July?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$23K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 15, 2024

Price history

Market probability

Loading price history…

Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

New EU country recognizes Palestine before July?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 15, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On May 22, 2024, Norway, Ireland, and Spain announced that they plan to formally recognize a Palestinian state on May 28. Several other EU member states have announced intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in the future. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any EU country that has not previously done so, besides Spain and Ireland, formally recognizes a Palestinian state by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Only a government's formal recognition of a Palestinian state will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of any relevant state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.