Natural Disaster in 2026?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required

24h volume$11.7

Total volume$247.8K

Liquidity$1.4K

Event end date · UTCMar 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds8.5%

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Yes8.5%Polymarket estimate

No91.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $1.4K
Deadline · UTC: Mar 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 8.0¢ / 9.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Retrieved 10/3/2026, 8:03:29 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.