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NATO article 5 before 2027?
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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volume$1.3K
Total volume$266.3K
Liquidity$23K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting ordersMarket odds6%
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Yes6%Polymarket estimate
No94.1%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $23K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 5.2¢ / 6.7¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 8:25:29 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.