Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$57K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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ClosedMarket odds0%

Mexico tariffs on China in effect before July?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Jun 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.5¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, recently stated she has been considering applying tariffs to Chinese goods to avoid a US imposition of tariffs on Mexican goods (https://fortune.com/2025/02/24/mexico-weighs-china-tariffs-trump-deal-claudia-sheinbaum/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new tariffs on imports into Mexico from China go into effect for any amount of time between February 23, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into Mexico) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.