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Meta's Watermelon released on...?
24h volume$6.7K
Total volume$16K
Liquidity$14.2K
Event end date · UTCOct 31, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
32 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
On or prior to October 1Closed0%
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?
Yes0%
No100%
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.