Megaquake by September 30?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$86.9K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCSep 30, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Megaquake by September 30?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Sep 30, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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This market is closed or awaiting resolution.

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Resolution rules

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between July 30 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until October 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.