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Margin in Argentina Presidential Election?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$65.6K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCNov 19, 2023
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Milei by >5%ClosedMarket odds100%
Will Javier Milei win by more than 5% in the 2023 Argentina Presidential election?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 18, 2023
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Javier Milei wins the second round of the 2023 Argentina Presidential election by a margin of more than 5%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by each candidate in the election. Valid votes are defined as votes cast for either Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, excluding votes that are blank, null, etc. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each candidate receives by the sum of all valid votes received by both candidates. For example, if Milei receives 53% of the valid votes, and Massa receives 47% of the valid votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the Milei margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (Milei% - Massa% = Margin of Victory). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Argentine government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/interior/dine).