Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

Foretrace AI research

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$20K

Liquidity$8.3K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds1.5%

Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

Yes1.5%Polymarket estimate

No98.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $7.8K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 1.4¢ / 1.6¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.