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Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?
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Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required
24h volume$51
Total volume$6.2K
Liquidity$10.9K
Event end date · UTCApr 17, 2027
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Polymarket · UTC
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Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31, 2026Accepting ordersMarket odds13%
Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by December 31, 2026?
Yes13%Polymarket estimate
No87%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $10.4K
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 12.0¢ / 14.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister. If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.