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Latvia Parliamentary Election: Which parties win seats?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 4 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$699.7
Total volume$3.7K
Liquidity$23.5K
Event end date · UTCOct 3, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS)Deadline passedMarket odds11.5%
Will the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) win seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections?
Yes11.5%Polymarket estimate
No88.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $27.6
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 3, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 4.0¢ / 19.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026. Each market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified party receives at least one seat in the Latvian Saeima as a result of the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections. Otherwise that market will resolve to "No". Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to "No". Each market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centrālā vēlēšanu komisija, CVK) (https://www.cvk.lv/).