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Latvia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
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24h volume$4.9K
Total volume$5K
Liquidity$53.5K
Event end date · UTCOct 4, 2026
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Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
AS 20%+Deadline passedMarket odds99.8%
Latvia parliamentary election vote share margin of victory: AS 20%+?
Yes99.8%Polymarket estimate
No0.2%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $5.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 4, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.7¢ / 99.9¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 100 members of the Saeima are scheduled to take place in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other”. If any party other than Apvienotais saraksts (AS) wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).