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Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$653.1K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?
Mamdani100%Polymarket estimate
Proposition 500%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2025
- Mamdani bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the margin of victory for the Democratic-backed "Yes" position in the 2025 California referendum on Proposition 50. This market will resolve to "Proposition 50" if the margin of victory in the California referendum is greater than in the New York City Mayor election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the mayoral election and between the “Yes” and “No” vote shares in the referendum. If the Democratic candidate and the “Yes” position fail to win, this market will resolve to the contest in which they lost by the smaller margin. If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the California Secretary of State).