Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

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Choose a market to analyze 1 eligible question · Evidence required

24h volume$1.8

Total volume$106.1K

Liquidity$12.6K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Accepting ordersMarket odds3.6%

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Yes3.6%Polymarket estimate

No96.4%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $12.6K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 3.5¢ / 3.7¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.