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Kimi K4 released by…?
Foretrace AI research
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Choose a market to analyze 3 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$21.2K
Liquidity$6.9K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
3 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
October 31, 2026Accepting ordersMarket odds1.3%
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?
Yes1.3%Polymarket estimate
No98.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $5.9K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.1¢ / 1.5¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.