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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
Choose a market to analyze 2 eligible questions · Evidence required
24h volume$106.6K
Total volume$75.3M
Liquidity$329.3K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
11 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
July 31ClosedMarket odds0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Aug 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
AI research not covered
This market is closed or awaiting resolution.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.