JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$69.5K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCOct 11, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Oct 11, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.1¢ / 0.2¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if J.D. Vances's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is 40.1% or higher for for any day between Oct 2 (inclusive) and October 11, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after October 11, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.